‘The sycamores are cut down, but we will change them into cedars’: Most recent shemitah year ended Sept. 13

Another shemitah year has come and gone. And the world as we know it has … well, it has carried on pretty much as before. Shemitah years, also spelled as shmita, have ancient roots dating back 3,000 years and are grounded in the seventh year of the seven-year agricultural cycle mandated by the Torah for the Land of Israel and still observed in contemporary Judaism. During a shemitah year, the land is left to lie fallow.

More recently, some Wall Street analysts have pondered the mystery of what appears to be seven-year economic cycles tied to shemitah years. And wondered why crashes often seem to come in September and October. While we’re only halfway through that two-month period and the financial sky has yet to exactly fall, investors had a brief scare in August when China’s currency, known as the yuan or renminbi, fell in value more than it did in the previous two decades.

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.5 on Aug. 24 – erasing the last of its gains for the year in its biggest single-day loss since 2007.  The Shanghai Composite Index has plummeted nearly 40 percent since hitting a peak earlier this year.

Within minutes after the opening bell Aug. 24, the Dow Jones plummeted 1,089 points, the largest point loss ever during a trading day, surpassing the trillion-dollar “Flash Crash” of May 6, 2010,  which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes, sending the Dow down 998.5 points, its biggest intra-day trading drop until Monday. The Dow closed down 588 points Aug. 24, the worst one-day for the Dow since August 2011.

Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, closed Aug. 24 at $42.80 a barrel, its lowest close since March 11, 2009. Oil prices tumbled more than five per cent Aug. 24, with U.S. light crude closing at $38.24 a barrel, its lowest close February 2009. The week of Aug. 16-22 marked oil prices’ longest weekly losing streak since 1986. Today, Brent Crude LCOc1, the key indicator for global crude prices, was selling for $47.34 a barrel; meaning there has been no significant recovery in price over the last month or so, nor is any expected anytime soon.

And while the Shanghai Composite Index and China have been making most of the bad-news financial headlines of late, consider this:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average all-time closing high was 18,312.39, set on May 19.  The Dow closed at 16,001.89 today, down 2,310.5 points from its peak 4½ months ago;
• British stocks are down about 16 percent from the peak of the market;
• French stocks have declined nearly 18 percent;
• Italian stocks are already down 15 percent.

Jonathan Cahn is a New Jersey-born messianic Jewish rabbi, meaning he accepts Jesus Christ as the messiah, and is best known for his book The Harbinger: The Ancient Mystery That Holds the Secret of America’s Future, in which he compares the United States and the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on America to the destruction of ancient Israel. He started Railroad Avenue Hope of the World Ministries in Lodi, New Jersey in 1988 as “an end-time ministry for an end-time world,” describing it as being devoted to “giving out the Word of God to all peoples – to fulfill the Biblical mandate and Great Commission of God – to bring salvation to the Jew, to the Gentile, and to all unreached peoples of every land.”

In his sequel to The Harbinger: The Ancient Mystery That Holds the Secret of America’s Future, called The Mystery of the Shemitah: The 3,000-Year-Old Mystery That Holds the Secret of America’s Future, the World’s Future, and Your Future!, Cahn argued that the five great economic crashes of the last 40 years – 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008 – all occurred in shemitah years. The book rocketed to become an instant bestseller, listed at number eight overall on Amazon.com, and number one in Amazon’s Christian prophecies section.

Cahn argued if the Shemitah was not observed by the people, it would become a curse, as described later in Leviticus Chapter 25 in the Bible’s Old Testament. That’s what happened, Cahn said in 586 B.C., a shemitah year, when the First Temple in Jerusalem fell and the Jews of the Kingdom of Judah went into captivity in Babylon for 70 years. The year following the destruction of the rebuilt Second Temple on the original site of Solomon’s Temple in 70 A.D. was the first year of the seven-year sabbatical cycle. In the Jewish calendar, counting from creation, this was year 3829. By counting sevens from then the next shemitah year will be the year 5775 after creation, which runs from Sept. 25, 2014 through Sept. 13, 2015.

Deuteronomy, another Old Testament book, says in Chapter 15, “At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. “This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the Lord’s remission has been proclaimed…” Before you decide to stiff the bank on your October mortgage payment, it might well be worth noting it is not a carte blanche release apparently, as the same chapter in Deuteronomy also says, “You may collect from the alien, but if you have any claim against your brother for a debt, you must relinquish it….”

Cahn said shemitah can have several meanings. It can mean a “release” – and in ancient Israel debts were canceled and land returned to its original owners,

But it can also mean “to fall, to collapse, to shake,” he said.

Back beyond the five great economic crashes of the last 40 years in 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008, during the Great Depression, a solar eclipse took place 83 years ago on Sept. 12, 1931 – the end of a shemitah year. Eight days later, England abandoned the gold standard, setting off further market crashes and bank failures around the world. It also heralded in the greatest month-long stock market crash calculated on a percentage basis in Wall Street history.

But Cahn was guarded and careful not to predict what would happen in the recently completed shemitah year.

“The phenomenon may manifest in one cycle and not in another and then again in the next,” he wrote. “And the focus of the message is not date-setting but the call of God to repentance and return. At the same time, something of significance could take place, and it is wise to note the times.”

Cahn also noted the fact that 2014 and 2015 are marked by a series of blood moons – a pattern that began on Passover 2014 and will conclude on the Feast of Tabernacles in 2015. There was one last night, accompanied by a full lunar eclipse.

April 15, 2014 marked the first Blood Moon of the 21st century. In astronomical terms, the total lunar eclipse on April 15, 2014 was the 56th eclipse of the Saros 122 series, a series that began on Aug. 14, 1022 and is composed of 74 lunar eclipses in the following sequence: 22 penumbral, eight partial, 28 total, seven partial, and nine penumbral eclipses. The last eclipse of the series is on Oct. 29, 2338.

Blood moon is a term of more religious than astronomical significance. In the Old Testament Book of Joel, Chapter 2, verse 31, the minor prophet says: “And I will show wonders in the heavens and in the earth, blood, and fire, and pillars of smoke. The sun shall be turned into darkness, and the moon into blood, before the great and terrible day of the Lord come.”

In Bible prophecy, this is always first and foremost about Israel and the Middle East, and what, if anything, such portents hold. The April 2014 and April 2015 total lunar eclipses align with the Jewish Feast of Passover. The October 2014 and September 2015 total lunar eclipses aligned with the Jewish Feast of Tabernacles. Yori Yanover, writing in the Brooklyn, New York-based Jewish Press Oct. 6, 2013 observed, “The prophecy in Joel, like most prophecies, is surreal, beautiful, and open to many interpretations.” But he also notes that two of these Blood Moons will “shine over the Passover seder” on April 15, 2014 and April 4, 2015. “Whenever this happened in the past, enormous events took place in Jewish history.”

The tetrad phenomenon of a string of four Blood Moons, partially or completely eclipsed, last occurred twice in the 20th century – and both times on the night of the Passover seder in 1949-50 and 1967-68. The first came after the establishment of the State of Israel, which resulted in Israel officially taking a seat at the United Nations on Nov. 5, 1949, while the latter occurred after the Six-Day War of 1967, when Israel re-captured the Old City that included the Temple Mount for the first time since 70 AD.

The last Blood Moons tetrad before the 20th century was in 1493-94 – a year after the Christian expulsion of Jews from Spain by King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella, the Catholic monarchs.

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China Syndrome stock market meltdown: ‘This is like déjà vu all over again’

“This is like déjà vu all over again,” said baseball legend Yogi Berra in his famous and oft-quoted malapropism.  We haven’t had that feeling here since … 2008.

Over the past two weeks, China’s currency,  known as the yuan or renminbi, fell in value more than it did in the previous two decades.  The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.5 percent Monday – erasing the last of its gains for the year in its biggest single-day loss since 2007.  Within minutes after the opening bell, the Dow Jones plummeted 1,089 points, the largest point loss ever during a trading day, surpassing the trillion-dollar “Flash Crash” of May 6, 2010,  which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes, sending the Dow down 998.5 points, its biggest intra-day trading drop until Monday. The Dow closed down 588 points Aug. 24, the worst one-day for the Dow since August 2011.

Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, closed Monday at $42.80 a barrel, its lowest close since March 11, 2009. Oil prices tumbled more than five per cent Aug. 24, with U.S. light crude closing at $38.24 a barrel, its lowest close February 2009. Last week marked oil prices’ longest weekly losing streak since 1986.

So perhaps it is “déjà vu all over again,” as Yogi said. Or perhaps it is déjà vu with a China wildcard difference seven years after 2008.

The Great Recession began the night before my holidays began in 2008, although no one quite knew it yet that Sunday night. I was browsing the news headlines that evening on Sept. 14, 2008. But in fact, the dominoes were starting to tumble. The failures of massive financial institutions in the United States began, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolving into a global economic crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in the United States and Europe and sharp reductions in the value of stocks and commodities worldwide.

The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland was able to secure an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund in November. In the United States, 15 banks failed in 2008, while several others were rescued through government intervention or acquisitions by other banks. On Oct. 11, 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world financial system was teetering on the “brink of systemic meltdown.”

Some phrases become indelibly inked in the public consciousness in association with a single idea or event.

Lehman Brothers are two such words.

Before declaring bankruptcy in 2008, Lehman Brothers, founded by Henry and Emanuel Lehman in 1850 in Montgomery, Alabama, was the fourth-largest investment bank in the Unites States, behind Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, doing business in investment banking, equity and fixed-income sales and trading, especially in U.S. Treasury securities, research, investment management, private equity and private banking.

At 1:45 a.m. on Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection following a mass exodus of most of its clients, drastic losses in its stock, and devaluation of its assets by credit rating agencies. Lehman’s bankruptcy filing remains the largest in U.S. history

The name Lehman Brothers  would soon become shorthand for one thing – and one thing only: the collapse of the investment bank triggered the financial meltdown that resulted in the Great Recession, the most financially cataclysmic event since the decade of the Great Depression from 1929 to 1939.

In a spectacular stroke of good fortune, however, about 1,250 United Steelworkers Local 6166 workers in Thompson, Manitoba inked a new three-year collective agreement with Vale, the Brazilian mining giant, on Sept. 15, 2008 – the very day Lehman Brothers collapsed. The tentative deal had been reached three days earlier on Sept. 12. Workers voted 65.5 per cent in favour of the contract, which included wage increases in each year of the agreement consistent with their previous contract, and pension improvements.  Last night, six years later, the remaining 1,100 or so United Steelworkers Local 6166 members employed by Vale’s Manitoba Operations voted 79.8 per cent in favour of a accepting a new five-year collective bargaining agreement again reached three days earlier on Sept. 12.

The United States economy, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, would later conclude, had actually been in recession since December 2007 – nine months before Lehman Brothers spectacular financial blowout, although there remained some economic outliers in North America, part of a shrinking circle that in the autumn of 2008 still included Manitoba and Saskatchewan, North Dakota and some of the high-plains Texas Panhandle. The anomaly of the good times rolling on in the fortunate outliers made the Great Recession almost everywhere else in the world seem surreal at first, although Vale did announce on Nov. 17, 2010  they planned to close the smelter and refinery in Thompson, Manitoba in 2015 – an announcement that came 17 months after the Great Recession, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, ended in June 2009. Both the smelter and refinery are likely now to stay open until about 2019, having received several reprieves over the last five years. The December 2007 to June 2009 recession lasted 18 months, making it the longest recession since the Second World War.

For five very scary months, from early October 2008 through early March 2009, the world economy was in free fall. Terms such as deleveraging, subprime mortgage, London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), derivatives, credit default swap and bailout became part of our everyday vocabulary.

Bloomberg L.P., one of the world’s leading English-language financial news services, based in New York City, ran a remarkable story in January 2009, totaling up single-day job losses worldwide. “At least 21,000 jobs were targeted for elimination yesterday as employers from Hertz Global Holdings Inc. to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. grappled with recession-choked demand,” was how the story opened. “More than 20 companies said they were cutting jobs, ranging from Amonil SA, Romania’s second-biggest fertilizer maker, to Fiat SpA’s Magneti Marelli auto-parts division. Hertz, the second-largest U.S. rental-car company, said it will cut more than 4,000 jobs, as businesses and consumers slow travel because of the global recession.”

General Motors shares hit a low of $1.40 in morning trading March 6, 2009, marking their lowest point since May 23, 1933, reported the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a 12-year low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009 – its lowest close since April 1997, and had lost 20 per cent of its value in only six weeks.

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