Weather

Under the gun: Pennsylvania to Massachusetts about to be hammered by epic winter storm, weather forecasters predict

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New York City, Great Blizzard of Dec. 26, 1947

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New York City, Jan. 26, 2015

I admit it. It is kind of hard to get too cranked up about bad winter weather elsewhere when you live pretty much at the dead centre of the North American continent here in Northern Manitoba, like I do. The normal daytime high temperature here on Jan. 26 is 0°F with an overnight low dropping to -22°F.

So when I read morning headlines such as, “Historic storm to slam northeast,” I quickly recall earlier similar headlines for Mid-Atlantic stories such as the “snowmageddon” of Feb. 5-6, 2010 that blanketed the Washington, D.C. region under 18-32 inches of snow. Really.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a winter storm where sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater, with considerable falling and/or blowing snow, reducing visibility frequently to less than a quarter of a mile, are expected to prevail for a period of three hours or longer. NOAA’s National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center at College Park, Maryland predicted this morning at 9:20 a.m. CST that a surface low pressure center near the Outer Banks of North Carolina is expected to intensify rapidly and develop into a major winter storm, heading north from the Northern Mid-Atlantic for New England. It is expected to be a nor’easter just south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts tomorrow morning.

I live in Northern Manitoba now, but I grew up in Oshawa, Ontario, east of Toronto, not so far from Buffalo where lake-effect snow, created when cold low-level wind coming in a direction parallel to the long axis of Lake Erie can maximize the “fetch”, or the time and distance the cold air travels over the warmer body of water – in this case, Lake Erie, of which Buffalo is at the eastern end of. Late autumn and early winter brings the most frequent lake-effect snows off Lake Erie, the shallowest of the Great Lakes, before it ices over and reduces the exposed water surface.  Last Nov. 17, the water surface temperature of Lake Erie was almost 43°F. The air temperature above it was less than 9°F. Over the next three days, some areas around Buffalo were blasted with six feet of snow. Now, that’s what I call “snowmageddon.”

I used to live in Boston in the 1980s and in the 1990s drove by car on at least one return trip every February for three consecutive winters from Trent University in Peterborough in Southern Ontario to Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, south of Washington, D.C., so  I “get it” why the winter storm bearing down today from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts is a big deal. It is part of the Boston-Washington Corridor (also known simply as the BosWash or Bosnywash sometimes, the former coined by futurist George Fieraru in 1967) and the most heavily urbanized region of the United States and stretches on a map almost as a straight line from the northern suburbs of Boston to the southern suburbs of Washington, D.C. in northern Virginia. It includes Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, along with their metropolitan areas and suburbs, as well as many smaller urban centers. With a population of close to 52 million people, the Boston-Washington Corridor comprises about 17 per cent of the U.S. population on less than two per cent the nation’s land area.

About 58 million people are in the storm’s path, which also includes portions of the Ohio Valley, Southern Appalachians and panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland.

Up to three feet of snow is predicted for New York City. The city’s biggest snowstorm was on Feb. 11-12, 2006, when 26.9 inches of snow fell, according to the city’s Office of Emergency Management. The second biggest snowstorm to date in New York City occurred on Dec. 26, 1947, when 25.8-inches of snow fell during what is known now as the Great Blizzard of 1947.

Atlanta-based CNN, well south of the storm track and looking at mainly sunny skies and temperatures of 48°F to 55°F Tuesday through Thursday, had the pithy and perhaps prescient lede this morning that would be hard to top: “Go home. Stay there. Seriously.”

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